Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

398
FXUS61 KALY 250551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
151 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An even warmer day is in store for eastern NY and western New
England today with an upper level disturbance pushing through
Canada resulting in a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly for areas near and north of Interstate 90 through this
evening. Our next chance for widespread rainfall arrives Friday
evening and continues through Saturday with rain exiting the
region Saturday evening. Dry, breezy and cooler conditions
return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers (15 - 30% chance) and isolated
  thunderstorms (15% chance) for areas near and north of I-90,
  mainly this afternoon/early evening.

- There is a 40 to 60% chance that temperatures exceed 75 degree
  in valley areas from the Capital District southward into the
  mid-Hudson Valley.

Discussion:

.UPDATE...As of 145 AM EDT, narrow band of isolated showers
continues near and south of I-90. This seems to be in
association with weak front which has settled southward, along
with some mid level frontogenesis within right entrance region
of mid/upper level jet translating east across southern Quebec.
This band may tend to migrate slowly northward through daybreak,
although coverage of showers/sprinkles may decrease as overall
forcing weakens.

Otherwise, temps have already dropped into the lower/mid 40s
across portions of the southern Adirondacks, with upper 40s to
mid/upper 50s elsewhere, warmest across the mid Hudson Valley
region. Temps may drop into the upper 30s across portions of the
SW Adirondacks, with mainly mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.

Some patchy fog may form across portions of the southern
Adirondacks, southern VT and upper Hudson Valley where a
lingering cold pool and slightly higher RH values are located,
along with clear to partly cloudy skies allowing for radiational
cooling and a closer temp/dewpoint spread.

[PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS]...Update as of 1030 PM EDT...KENX
showed isolated rain showers mainly in the eastern Catskills due
to a nearby warm front. Latest CAMs suggest this activity will
continue into the night and will remain isolated in nature as
they move east, so have adjusted POPs to include slgt chance of
showers mainly from the Catskills into the Capital District and
Berkshires. Only a few hundredths of an inch of QPF are expected
out of these showers. Elsewhere, dry conditions with mild
temperatures in the 50s to near 70 persist thanks to mid and
upper level cloud cover. Previous discussion below...

Previous discussion...As mentioned in the previous discussion,
forecast soundings support an inverted-V signature this
afternoon as there is virtually no inversion present on the 12
UTC ALY sounding. This would not only support very deep boundary
layer mixing ensuing this afternoon allowing temperatures to
over-perform and likely rise into the mid-upper 70s (some low
80s in the mid- Hudson Valley) but DCAPE of up to 500 J/kg may
also support some locally gusty winds within any stronger
showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. There is medium to high
chance that gusts reach up to 30kts, especially up the Hudson
Valley as southerly winds funnel up the valley.

Heading into tonight, most showers/storms dissipate this evening
leaving us with dry conditions with a cirrus canopy likely
lingering overhead as our weak warm front stalls across our
northern zones including the Upper Hudson Valley and southern
Adirondacks. We remain in the warm sector tonight and thus stay
mild with overnight lows only falling into the 50s (40s higher
terrain areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- 75 to 95% chance for high temperatures to exceed 75 degrees
  tomorrow for most of eastern NY and western New England
  outside of the western/southern Adirondacks and southern
  Greens.

- Widespread rainfall expected Friday night into Saturday
  (70-90% chances), with most likely amounts of 0.50-1.00 inches
  expected. Less than 20% chance for rainfall amounts to exceed
  1 inch with 25 - 35% chance within the southern Greens,
  eastern Catskills and southern Adirondacks. Cannot rule out
  flooding in poor drainage and urban areas but not expecting
  widespread flooding.

- Winds shift to the west and turn gusty late Saturday afternoon
  into Saturday night with 30% chance for wind gusts to exceed
  30mph.

Discussion:

Our warm front remains stalled across our northern zones Friday
morning so a few isolated showers remain possible here but the
rest of the region will remain dry under filtered sunshine. The
front finally lifts northward by midday or early afternoon with
southerly winds kicking in allowing our region to fully enter
into the warm sector (850 hPa isotherms rise to +10C to +11C).
Despite mid and high level clouds increasing through the
afternoon, probabilistic guidance shows high values (greater
than 75% chance) for temperatures to exceed 75 degrees tomorrow
afternoon. Most of the afternoon remains dry as upper level
ridging and weak subsidence builds over the Northeast.

By Friday night, a potent shortwave will be amplifying as it
digs through the Upper Midwest. While it will be displaced well
to our west, weak height falls start to spread into the
Northeast as the leading edge of stronger isentropic lift and
moisture advection pushes into our western zones (Mohawk
Valley, eastern/northern Catskills). The increased forcing for
ascent will allow showers to advance into these areas by 00 - 06
UTC Saturday and organized into areas of steady/moderate rain.
POPs trend upwards towards and after Midnight for areas along
and east of the Hudson River as the stronger isentropic lift and
moisture advection marches eastward. With the low and mid-level
southwesterly jet reaching 40-45kts and the fetch extending
well into the Southeast U.S/the Gulf, a moisture plume with
PWATs 1 - 1.25" (2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal per
the NAEFS) will be directed into the Northeast. This will allow
rain to remain steady/moderate at times into Saturday morning
with 3-hourly rainfall rates reaching up to 0.10 - 0.25".

Steady stratiform rain continues through Saturday morning across
the region as the anticyclonic curved jet positioned over the
Northeast maintained forcing for ascent within the moisture rich
environment. By Saturday afternoon, the system`s potent cold
front advances eastward with the mid-level dry slot nosing
directly behind the front. Immediately ahead of the front, dew
points surge into the 50s to potentially near 60 contributing
to weak instability. The stronger low-level forcing from the
incoming front combined with weak instability will likely lead
to areas of moderate to locally heavier rain along with some
thunderstorms. We maintained slight chance thunder as SPC also
keeps us in its "general thunder" region but not expecting any
severe storms. Still some uncertainty on the exact arrival of
the cold front as some guidance suggests by 18 - 21 UTC but
others show 21 - 00 UTC. Leaning on the later arrival time given
that the parent shortwave cuts off as it heads into the
Northeast so the front likely will slow down.

Once the front pushes through from west to east Saturday
afternoon/early evening, winds shift abruptly to the west and
turn gusty as forecast soundings show the incoming dry slot
supporting enhanced momentum transfer. Probabilistic guidance
shows there is a 30% chance for gusts to exceed 30mph
especially along the Mohawk Valley, Capital District and western
New England with breezy winds continuing overnight Saturday.
Isolated to scattered showers linger Saturday night as the upper
level cold pool and parent cut-off low slowly moves overhead.
Higher elevation in the southern Adirondacks could mix with snow
overnight as temperatures trend cooler under the strong cold
air advection regime. Overnight lows drop into the mid to upper
30s in southern/western Adirondacks and southern Greens while
the rest of the region falls into the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Increasing confidence for breezy conditions Sunday with 30 to
   50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30mph.

 - Medium to high confidence for high temperatures Tuesday to
   rise above 75 degrees (70 - 80% chance).

Discussion:

Our closed low slowly shifts overhead towards New England on
Sunday which will keep temperatures cooler than normal. In fact,
there is medium confidence for temperatures to struggle to rise
out of the mid to high 50s. Northwest winds will also remain
quite gusty with probabilistic guidance showing 30 - 50% chance
for gusts over 30mph as the pressure gradient between our departing
sfc low and incoming high remains quite tight. There will also
be a few lingering showers through the day as we remain under
the cold pool. All in all, it will be a cool and breezy day and
a reminder that we may not be quite done with the chilly
weather. We remain cool into Sunday night as the winds weaken
with overnight lows again dropping into the 30s and 40s.

We trend warmer Monday into especially Tuesday as high pressure
and upper level ridging builds back into the Northeast. In
fact, there is increasing confidence that Tuesday will feature
our first 80 degree day for many across the region. A cold front
then arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday resulting in some
showers. Given the late arrival, thunderstorms may be tough to
develop but we will maintain an eye. We trend cooler for
Wednesday but still seasonable for late April as high pressure
returns. The boundary then looks to stall just to our south and
then lift back northward Wednesday into Thursday. Depending on
how close it stalls and when it lifts back northward, a few
showers may return to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue for all TAF sites through 26/00z. There are
some light rain showers south of KALB and west of KPSF that
continues to move through the next one to three hours, but no
impacts are expected. After 26/00z, increasing rain showers return
bringing a mix of MVFR And IFR conditions towards the end of the TAF
period. Kept mention of shower activity in the prevailing group for
KGFL and KALB as confidence is higher for rain showers. Very low
confidence for KPOU so kept mention out of the TAFs at this time.
For KPSF, kept mention in PROB30 groups as later forecast periods
can finer tune the start timing of shower activity. Winds are calm
to light northerly through this morning. Winds transition to more
southerly and increase to around 10 knots for this afternoon
becoming calm again for the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Speciale
NEAR TERM...KL/Speck/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Webb